RISK DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trade levels are derived from technical analysis and are not guarantees of future performance.
Always conduct your own due diligence. Past price patterns do not guarantee future returns.
Chart — VLO Daily View (2026-04-30)
▲ Horizontal Support Test
Crack Spread Recovery
Target: $155.00
DGD Renewable Diesel
Daily chart. Horizontal support zone $115–$122 tested multiple times. Bounce target $155. Stop below $108 (major support break).
Ticker
VLO
NYSE — Largest Ind. Refiner
Pattern
Support Test
Horizontal Base / Bounce
Support Zone
$115.00
Multi-Touch Support
Resistance
$140.00
Prior Consolidation Zone
Projected Target
$155.00
Measured Bounce Move
Hard Stop
$108.00
Below Major Support
Crack Spread
$18–22
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 $/bbl
Risk/Reward
1 : 3.8
From $120 with $108 stop
Fundamental Context
Refining Scale
15 Refineries / 3.2M bpd
Capacity3.2M barrels/day
Refineries15 (US, Canada, UK)
DGD Capacity1.2B gal/yr renewable
Div Yield~4% at current
VLO is the world's largest independent refiner with 15 refineries and 3.2M bpd of capacity.
The Gulf Coast complex is ideally positioned to capture WTI–Brent spread and heavy crude discounts.
The Diamond Green Diesel JV (DGD) is the world's largest renewable diesel plant (1.2B gal/yr),
providing earnings from biomass-based diesel with favorable regulatory incentives (RIN credits, BTC).
Crack Spread Dynamics
Margin Environment
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack spreads at $18–22/bbl are well below 2022–2023 peaks of $40+/bbl but
remain solidly above the $12–15/bbl normalization threshold. Seasonal driving demand recovery,
ULSD export demand to Europe, and Mexican refinery delays are constructive near-term catalysts.
VLO's refining margin per barrel averages $14–16/bbl after variable costs in a $20 spread environment.
Key Catalysts
Watch List
Bullish: Crack spread recovery to $25+, DGD RIN credit stability, summer driving demand, Mexico fuel import demand, additional buybacks announced.
Bearish: Crack spreads below $15, RIN credit price collapse, European refinery restarts, demand destruction from EV adoption accelerating.
Bearish: Crack spreads below $15, RIN credit price collapse, European refinery restarts, demand destruction from EV adoption accelerating.
Key Price Level Map
Upside Targets
Primary Target
$155.00
Measured bounce move. Prior congestion zone.
Interim Resistance
$140.00
Prior consolidation ceiling. TP1 zone.
TP1
$132.00
50% bounce recovery. First take-profit zone.
Support Zones
Current Price Area
$118.00 – $125.00
Testing horizontal support. Watch for reversal candle.
Horizontal Support
$115.00
Multi-touch support zone. High-conviction buyer area.
Invalidation
$108.00
Stop loss. Major support break — refining thesis voided.
Entry Plays — Long Setups
| # | Play | Signal Type | Status | Entry Zone | Stop Loss | TP1 | TP2 (Final) | R/R | Trigger Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LONG-1 Support Bounce |
LONG | WATCH NOW | $115.00 – $120.00 | $108.00 | $132.00 | $155.00 | 1 : 3.8 | Support test + RSI < 35 + crack spread stabilizing |
| 2 | LONG-2 Recovery Momentum |
LONG | PENDING | $124.00 – $130.00 | $116.00 | $140.00 | $155.00 | 1 : 3.2 | MACD cross + crack spread expanding + RSI > 45 |
| 3 | LONG-3 Resistance Break |
LONG | PENDING | $140.00 – $143.00 | $133.00 | $148.00 | $155.00 | 1 : 2.1 | Daily close above $140 + volume + positive crack data |
Pine Script Reference — AlertEdge.io_VLO_Entry_Signals
// VLO — Horizontal Support Bounce | Target: $155.00 | Support: $115.00 | Break: $140.00
// Strategy: Crack Spread Recovery + DGD Renewable Diesel Floor
LONG-1 Support → Green ● circle below bar | text = "SUPPORT"
LONG-2 Recovery → Blue ↑ arrow below bar | text = "RECOV"
LONG-3 Res Break → Orange ▲ triangle below bar | text = "BREAK↑"
// Alert: RSI < 35 at $115–120 + crack spread > $18 = LONG-1
// Alert: Daily close above $140 + vol surge = LONG-3 confirmed
// Strategy: Crack Spread Recovery + DGD Renewable Diesel Floor
LONG-1 Support → Green ● circle below bar | text = "SUPPORT"
LONG-2 Recovery → Blue ↑ arrow below bar | text = "RECOV"
LONG-3 Res Break → Orange ▲ triangle below bar | text = "BREAK↑"
// Alert: RSI < 35 at $115–120 + crack spread > $18 = LONG-1
// Alert: Daily close above $140 + vol surge = LONG-3 confirmed